Funny story: I was supposed to have Bobby Bonilla on Masters in Business, but it did not come to pass.1 That was a shame, because Bobby Bonilla Day is a fascinating cautionary tale about hubris, fraud, misunderstanding risk, and all sorts of other amusing and fun BeFi issues. I went deep down the rabbit…
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My mid-week morning train WFH reads: • Where Is the Fed Headed?: Reading the monetary tea leaves as the rate-path debate heats up. A clear-eyed guide through a confusing moment for policy. (Stay-At-Home Macro) • How the Mag 7 became the Lag 7. Year-to-date percentage change The megacaps that powered the market are now dragging…
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My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Why Are Investors Holding More Cash? The 2020s (so far) are the worst decade ever for bond investors; Many investors decided to own cash in lieu of bonds for fixed income exposure after a rising rate, higher inflation environment crushed high quality bonds. And, Cash finally has yield.…
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The transcript from this week’s MiB: Carl Richards on Sketching Wealth Strategy, is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (video), YouTube (audio), and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here. ~~~ Carl…
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My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Why It’s So Hard to Spot a Stock-Market Bubble: Bubbles are obvious only in the rearview. A timely WSJ reminder as the AI-trade froth keeps everyone guessing. (Wall Street Journal) • Why Americans Hate the ‘Good’ Economy: The sentiment-versus-data gap, examined yet again. The numbers say one thing,…
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Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • The deadliest branch of al-Qaeda on earth runs the ground the United States walked away from. You’ve probably never heard its name: JAMA’AT NUSRAT AL-ISLAM WAL-MUSLIMIN A detailed open-source profile of the Sahel’s most potent jihadist coalition. Niche, sober, and a useful…
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So I’m looking through the midyear issue of “Pollstar” and there’s a chart for “Venues With Capacities Of 5,000 Or Less.” Now if you’re a dedicated follower of the main “Pollstar chart (if not fashion), you know it tends to be dominated by the usual suspects, mostly acts with years under their belts, playing…
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The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • Pixar’s $6 Billion Lunch: In 1994, the Pixar team had a work lunch that created ideas for 6 films (which have grossed $6 billion at the box office). (Trung Phan) • How…
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This week, I speak with Carl Richards, author of “Your Money: Reimagining Wealth in Simple Sketches“. They discuss Carl’s unlikely start in finance and building his own firm. Carl also breaks down how one sketch helped him translate wealth management and become a New York Times columnist. We discuss how his career…
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My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • Hollywood and Big Tech Are Preparing for War: The studios and the platforms circle each other as AI scrambles the economics of content. The fight that will define the next decade of entertainment. (The Hollywood Reporter) • Bitcoin hits 20-month low as market sentiment sours: Price of world’s…
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Cointelegraph: “Decentralized finance platform Abracadabra said Wednesday that it launched emergency measures after its crypto-collateralized stablecoin, Magic Internet Money (MIM), fell 50% below its $1 peg.” I have spent a lot of time vacillating between being Blockchain-Curious and Crypto-Skeptical. As an exercise, let’s consider the pros- and cons- of Stablecoins, and whether there…
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My morning train WFH reads: • The Coming Loop: I don’t prompt Claude anymore. I have loops running that prompt Claude and figuring out what to do. My job is to write loops. The Flask creator on agentic AI and the feedback loops we’re about to build into everything. Thoughtful, from someone who actually ships…
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At The Money: Do Agricultural Commodities Belong in Your Portfolio?, with Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium (June 24, 2026) Looking for a non-correlated trading vehicle that is also a hedge against inflation? Perhaps Agricultural ETFs are a potential for your portfolio. Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest: Sal Gilbertie began trading agricultural and…
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My mid-week morning train WFH reads: • I want to be in the same business as Leopold “Lumpy” Aschenbrenner: A skeptical look at the AI-fund gold rush and the boy-genius mystique funding it. The title alone earns the click. (Old Rope Research) • A smaller Fed megaphone: Kevin Warsh: a man of few words. Kevin Warsh, the new…
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My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Trump picked Kevin Warsh to cut rates. The new Fed chief just told us he has other plans. Here’s what the central bank’s hawkish agenda means for your money. MarketWatch on Warsh’s first public posture as Fed chair — independence-flavored, not rate-cut-flavored. The political collision is already scheduled.…
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My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The impact of the AI capex boom on S&P 500 return on equity: Record profitability has been one of the factors supporting high S&P 500 valuations. S&P 500 ROE has surged by 150 bp during the past four quarters, driven by a boost from the mega-cap technology stocks…
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I had fun talking with Scott and Ed about the market’s reaction to the SpaceX IPO, including whether the valuation is justified, and why I pay attention to the company’s float. We also discuss why I find the comparisons to the dot-com bubble misguided, what to make of the circular deals in the…
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This past Spring, I had about 6 weeks of mad travel. Especially so, for someone who isn’t much of a road warrior. But my travels were nothing compared to my buddy Marshall’s. My spring fling looked something like this: -Grand Cayman (5 days; last minute getaway from NY winter) -FutureProof Miami -La Jolla,…
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Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • The World’s Leading Deepfake Expert No Longer Trusts His Own Eyes: NYT on Hany Farid losing confidence in unaided visual judgment as generative video improves. The implications for evidence, journalism, and trust are large. In the age of A.I., Hany Farid is…
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The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • Calvin and Hobbes and the Price of Integrity: How Bill Watterson Stuck to His Guns — and Vanished: Watterson’s way of speaking about these things occasionally veers into the self-important register…
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3-Day weekend! Kick it off with our morning reads: • Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Anything. I Bet Against My Own Husband: GQ on a woman who hedged her own husband’s career outcomes on Polymarket. The piece is funnier and darker than the premise suggests. You can wager on war, elections, awards shows, reality…
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This week, I speak with Seth Klarman, CEO and portfolio manager of The Baupost Group, a Boston-based investment manager with a multi-strategy approach. Founded in 1982 with $27 million in seed capital, Baupost has grown over the past four decades to $22 billion in assets, with annual net returns of over ~20%. The…
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My morning train WFH reads: • Iran Is a Bigger Defeat Than Vietnam: FP makes the strategic case that Iran is a worse strategic loss than Vietnam. The comparison will annoy people; the argument is sharper than expected. A war of choice has turned into a strategic disaster for Washington. (Foreign Policy) • 10 things…
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At The Money: Deregulation Will Free Your Portfolio (June 18, 2026) The new administration promised deregulation and ending red tape to unleash business and animal spirits. An ETF allows you to deploy capital to take advantage of that theme. Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest: Michael Gayed is Portfolio Manager…
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My mid-week morning train WFH reads: • A Good Family: Fight Warsh says he wants one, inflation demands it, and the dot plot is how we’d see it. All eyes will be on Kevin Warsh this week as he chairs his first FOMC meeting. However, with PCE inflation on track to top 4% in May,…
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My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • How to Earn a Billion Dollars. Someone replied that having a few million and growing at 93% a month was radically different from being a billionaire. I suspect many people would agree with this statement. But it turns out not merely to be false, but false in a…
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The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Jean Eric Salata, Chair of EQT group, is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (video), YouTube (audio), and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here. ~~~…
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My back-to-work morning train WFB reads: • Why the Enormous IPOs Won’t Sink the Market. This is a potential stock market sea change. For the past 23 years, the supply of shares has been shrinking. Companies have bought back gobs of stock while turning stingy on dividends—they like that buybacks don’t require an ongoing commitment.…
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Since it’s commencement time, I wanted to share a few thoughts on serendipity. I have been working in finance since 1996 — three decades. My views on nearly everything have evolved over that time: Indexing, crowd behavior, trading, media, hedge funds, fixed income, private equity, technology, success, and money. The biggest belief shift…
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Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • The Cattle Empire That Turned Out to Be a Giant Ponzi Scheme: WSJ on the agricultural Ponzi nobody saw because the inventory was supposed to be on the hoof. The oldest frauds keep finding new collateral. Investors and bank loans fueled Brian…
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