The 6-Month "core services" PCE price index jumped 4.2% annualized, pushed the 6-month core PCE to 4.1%, worst since June 2023.

I’ll have sporadic access to the internet and will read the comments; if I turn into a night owl, I might write an article.

The 1-year Treasury yield spiked by 16 basis points, to 4.0%, highest since July, three rate cuts ago, as the bond market now expects multiple rate hikes.

I have to say the FOMC press conference was a breath of fresh air.

Everything is up for review. “There’s a taskforce for that,” he said. Dot plot, possibly the last one, turns hawkish.

Home prices fell from peaks in prior years in 28 of the 33 cities, led by Austin -27% and Oakland -26%, while AI mania in San Francisco trickled down from “mansion shortage” to mid-tier.

A new role for the SPR. It wasn’t designed for that.

How the long-term Treasury debt grows: Treasury notes & bonds outstanding rose on net by $59 billion this week.

Inflation surged past these yields, though they've started to rise again. Households nevertheless poured more money into them.

Cut the price, and they will buy. Dealing with the affordability crisis. Sales volume is up, but shares have plunged by nearly 50%.

The surge in energy costs is bad, but there's a lot of inflation from other sources.

Supercore services inflation surged, after taking off last fall. And AI data center demand drives electricity inflation.

But each market dances to a different drummer, and declines have been far bigger in many markets.

Compared to May 2019, sales were down the most in the West (-32%) and Northeast (-31%), less so in the South (-15%) and Midwest (-17%).

Inflation is the bane of the bond market. And it is now demanding multiple rate hikes, starting late this year.

Some industries hired, others cut jobs: we zoom out with charts by major industry categories.

We’re looking for culprits.

It could break the stock market. But it’ll stimulate the economy. Just don’t expect inflation to cool on its own.

Rotating from mania to mania?

But mortgage rates are not high historically, and “real” mortgage rates, amid resurging inflation, are relatively low.

But this dynamic makes it harder for young people to find a job.

Amid improved automation and efficiencies, production rises, but employment doesn’t, or only a little.

The Fed is behind the curve, the bond market is saying, and it’s going to hike belatedly starting later this year, whether it wants to or not.

But if they pop: There are only so many trillions that can vanish from portfolios before it triggers a recession.

Trend reversal started a year ago. Services inflation stuck at high rate for a year. Now prices of food, energy, computers & software (inflationary AI boom), and gold jewelry (gold price spike) all surged.

The stock has a history of collapsing by 50% to 98% after every spike, regularly falling below its Dotcom Bubble high. But this time is different?

Plus, in another 44 bigger cities, condo prices dropped by 7% to 14% so far, as the mindboggling Condo Bubble comes unglued.

There's no indication the bond market is better now in figuring future inflation; its expectation of 2.4% annual CPI over 10 years seems woefully low.

San Francisco & Portland came off the list. Fort Worth & Aurora (CO) come on the list.

Ugly trifecta that spooks the bond market. To soothe bond yields and mortgage rates, the Fed needs to hike, not “look through” inflation.