This morning the AEC finalised counting for the Farrer by-election with the release of detailed preference data. It answers what I thought was a key question in the result – whether there was a difference between Liberal and National preference flows to One Nation. It was not possible to answer this question using the previously… Read More »2026 – Farrer By-election – Final Count Data Released

This post includes full details of results by Count Centre. Links: Result Summary | Commentary | Count Centre Summaries | Count Centre Results Results by Counting Centre Chermside East 1,201 votes, 59 Informal (4.9%) First Preference Votes Name Party Votes % Vote % Change Fiona Hammond LNP 408 35.7 +0.7 Luke Richmond ALP 324 28.4… Read More »2026 – Stafford By-election – Count Centre Detail

The tables in this post summarise the results by count centre. The first table shows the Labor primary and two-candidate preferred vote by count centre and associated swings since the 2024 state election. The second table shows count centre percentages after summarising the nine candidates down to four group totals, Labor, LNP, Greens and ‘Others’.… Read More »2026 – Stafford By-election – Count…

On this page I will provide commentary on the results of the 2026 Stafford state by-election in Queensland. When I get the chance. Use the links below to navigate between the four results pages that I will be updating. Links: Result Summary | Commentary | Count Centre Summaries | Count Centre Results 10:40pm – and… Read More »2026 – Stafford By-election – Result Commentary

Tonight and in coming days, this post will publish an overall summary of the results of the 2026 Stafford state by-election in Queensland. The page will be regularly updated on election night and in the days that follow. Tonight there will also be links below to commentary on the results and more detail on the… Read More »2026 – Stafford By-election – Result Summary

Last week it was the Farrer by-election, a week earlier the Nepean by-election. Both Liberal held seats where the interest was how One Nation would perform against the Liberal Party in contests with no Labor candidate. This week’s Stafford by-election flips the interest. This time it’s inner-city Brisbane and a Labor held seat with no… Read More »Stafford By-election Preview

There are lessons to be drawn for current politics from One Nation’s second Queensland election in 2001. A collapsing Labor government called a snap election and played the instability card. Labor’s campaign included a memorable ad (inside this post) comparing Pauline Hanson to a back seat driver interfering with a Coalition government. Labor was re-elected… Read More »Farrer By-election…

The tables in this post will be updated to show the results in each polling place, early vote centre and declaration vote type. This page will be updated less frequently. Links: Result Summary | Commentary | Swing Tables | Count Centre Results Results by Counting Centre Albury 1,727 votes, 86 Informal (5%) First Preference Votes… Read More »2026 – Farrer By-election – Count Centre Results

The tables in this post summarise the results by count centre. Count centres are where votes are tallied and includes polling places, early voting centres, remote and special hospital booths and various categories of declaration vote. The first table shows the primary and two-candidate preferred vote by count centre for Independent Michelle Milthorpe and associated… Read More »2026 – Farrer…

On this page I will provide commentary on the results of the 2026 Farrer by-election when I get chance. Use the links below to navigate between the four results pages that I will be updating. Links: Result Summary | Commentary | Swing Tables | Count Centre Results 9:40pm – with the result clear I’ll take… Read More »2026 – Farrer By-election – Result Commentary

Tonight and in coming days, this post will publish an overall summary of the results of the 2026 Farrer by-election. The page will be regularly updated on election night and in the days that follow. Tonight there will also be links below to commentary on the results and more detail on the results by polling… Read More »2026 – Farrer By-election – Result Summary

The tables in this post will be updated to show the results in each polling place, a total for early votes, and a total for each declaration vote type. There are three Early Voting Centres but the VEC’s computer system can only publish an aggregate total for early vote centres. Results appear as centres report.… Read More »2026 – Nepean By-election – Count Centre Results

The tables in this post summarise the results by count centre. The first table shows the Liberal primary and two-candidate preferred vote by count centre and associated swings since the 2022 state election. The second table shows count centre percentages after summarising the eight candidates down to five group totals, Liberal, Independent Tracee Hutchison, One… Read More »2026 – Nepean…

This post will contain commentary on the results of the 2026 Nepean by-election. Use the links below to navigate between the four results pages that I will be updating. Links: Result Summary | Commentary | Swing Tables | Polling Place Results 9:20pm – all primary votes are now counted and Hercus is 3.4% ahead of… Read More »2026 – Nepean By-election – Result Commentary

This post contains an overall summary of the results of the 2026 Nepean by-election. The page will be regularly updated on election night. It will also be updated in the post-election period as election night votes are check counted and as postal and other declaration votes are included in the count. Links: Result Summary |… Read More »2026 – Nepean By-election – Results

The ancient Etruscans engaged in a ritual we know today as ‘haruspicy’ where animals were sacrificed and their entrails examined to interpret the will of the gods and divine the future. A modern political version of haruspicy will unfold this weekend over the results of the by-election in the Victorian state seat of Nepean. The… Read More »VIC2026 – Nepean by-election

UPDATE: this post has been updated with more information of the votes found for electorates other than Narungga. I was under the impression only absent early votes were involved but it turned out to be absent votes from all polling places in Stuart. Just when you thought counting was over for the SA election, it… Read More »SA2026 – it turns out the count ain’t over

The result of the recent South Australian election was clear with Labor the biggest winner, the Liberal Party the biggest loser, and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation the big improver. In the aftermath Labor can bask in its massive majority and the smiting of its political opponents. Division on the other side of politics eased Labor’s… Read More »SA2026 – huge win for Labor but a warning in the result

In a previous post published on Friday, I went through a detailed history of the Farrer electorate. In short, the seat was created in 1949. Until 1983 the seat was based on the southern NSW rural cities of Albury and Wagga Wagga and was always won by the Liberal Party. Traditionally the Liberal Party has… Read More »Farrer – a Liberal or National Seat?

After losing the Liberal leadership this morning, Sussan Ley has announced she will resign as member for her southern NSW seat of Farrer. Ley has held the seat since 2001 when she took it from the National Party after the retirement of Tim Fischer. In two-party contests, Ley has held the seat with double digit… Read More »The Coalition to face a messy by-election in Sussan Ley’s seat of Farrer