President Donald Trump has issued a pardon to Stephen Buyer, a former Republican congressman from Indiana who served nearly two years in prison for making illegal stock trades based on inside information after he left office.
Polymarket is a platform where people can bet on real-world events, political and otherwise. Leaving the ethical considerations of this aside (for one, it facilitates assassination), one of the issues with making this work is the verification of these real-world events. Polymarket gamblers have threatened a journalist because his story was being used to verify an event. And now, gamblers are…
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Putting a market price on some prediction does not make it a ‘truth machine.’
The post This Is the Worst Argument for Prediction Markets appeared first on The American Prospect.
Less than one month after Kalshi got into a legal whoopsie over whether or not they should pay out bettors who wagered on the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the early days of the United States' disastrous war with Iran, the don't-call-us-a-gambling-site's biggest competitor Polymarket, another gambling site, is facing a similar problem. An F-15 Strike Eagle was shot down on Friday over the…
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If you only got your news from the Democratic Party’s corporate wing, you’d be excused for thinking that not much of consequence was happening in the world. Centrist groups like Third Way and pro-Netanyahu organizations like the Anti-Defamation League don’t seem to be fretting about the escalating war in the Middle East, the Trump regime’s insider trading, or Republicans’ plans for another…
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Before the United States launched military strikes against Iran, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's broker at Morgan Stanley contacted BlackRock about making a "multimillion-dollar investment" in BlackRock's Defense Industrials Active ETF — a fund that tracks weapons and military contractors, according to Reuters, citing a Financial Times report. — Read the rest
The post Hegseth's broker tried to…
One of the Pentagon’s top officials driving the decision to blacklist Anthropic for refusing to allow its algorithms to be used for mass surveillance has a multimillion-dollar stake in one of the company’s competitors.
Pentagon official Emil Michael has emerged as a central figure in the decision to blacklist the AI company Anthropic. (Chris Goodney / Bloomberg via Getty Images)
As…
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Bet you can’t guess who is insider trading the Iran War.
The post Organized Money: The Business of Betting on Murder with Sen. Chris Murphy appeared first on The American Prospect.
It's a lot like Balatro, but you're not making a poker hand in Insider Trading, though. You're working the stock market.
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By intervening in individual bets, companies like Kalshi and Polymarket are not acting as neutral market makers, as they have claimed in litigation.
The post Prediction Markets May Have Inadvertently Outed Themselves as Casinos appeared first on The American Prospect.
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