Pluralistic: Goodhart's Law vs "prediction markets" (24 Mar 2026)

Today's links Goodhart's Law vs "prediction markets": Putting a gun to the metric's head. Hey look at this: Delights to delectate. Object permanence: Apple v interop; Yahoo v the world; Rasputin v the Haunted Mansion; Opening chord from A Hard Day's Night; Mondrian Pong; "IP": Patent trolls v Apple. Upcoming appearances: Berkeley, Montreal, London, Berlin, Hay-on-Wye. Recent appearances: Where…

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Prediction Markets Promised Better Information. Instead They’re Creating Powerful Incentives to Corrupt Information.

There’s a concept in economics known as Goodhart’s Law, often summarized as: “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.” The idea, originally about monetary policy, has proven remarkably durable across domains. When you attach high enough stakes to a single metric, people stop trying to accurately reflect reality and […]

It’s Gambling

What's the difference between betting on sports and "trading on a prediction market?" For the gambler herself, very little. If you go on Kalshi, the suddenly ubiquitous "prediction market" platform that has enjoyed the backing of the Trump administration, one can click on the "sports" tab and see a list of, among other events, all the college basketball games being played today. One can "buy…

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On The Breathtakingly Cynical Giannis Antetokounmpo Kalshi Investment

This week on _Nothing But Respect_ , we are covering the trade deadline in a very characteristic way, by which I course mean we spent most of the episode talking about Giannis Antetokounmpo's Kalshi investment, prediction markets, and the increasingly fractured and incoherent ways the sport is consumed and talked about. In other words, we went back to the well. Harry also talked about the…

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Giannis Antetokounmpo Jumps In Bed With Sleazy Prediction Market

Giannis Antetokounmpo has purchased some shares of the prediction market platform Kalshi. Kalshi, which would prefer to be described as a market-based "filter" on the otherwise unreliable flow of human knowledge but is in fact just a way for normies to lose money wagering on elections and hurricanes, is a private company. You would have no reason for knowing about Antetokounmpo's shares in…

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