How the long-term Treasury debt grows: Treasury notes & bonds outstanding rose on net by $59 billion this week.

Supercore services inflation surged, after taking off last fall. And AI data center demand drives electricity inflation.

Inflation is the bane of the bond market. And it is now demanding multiple rate hikes, starting late this year.

The Fed is behind the curve, the bond market is saying, and it’s going to hike belatedly starting later this year, whether it wants to or not.

There's no indication the bond market is better now in figuring future inflation; its expectation of 2.4% annual CPI over 10 years seems woefully low.

Ugly trifecta that spooks the bond market. To soothe bond yields and mortgage rates, the Fed needs to hike, not “look through” inflation.

The Fed is “behind the curve,” and the bond market is getting very nervous.

Which raises a question: How many more Fed rate cuts would it take in this inflationary era to drive the 30-year Treasury yield to 6%?

30-year Treasury yield looks like it’s setting up to break out past 5%. A rate cut while inflation is heating up could do it.

The effects of Tax Day. The 10-Year Treasury yield rose to 4.31%, 30-Year Treasury yield to 4.91%.

Foreign demand for the ballooning US Treasury debt is an increasingly important issue. But how much of that demand is actually “foreign?”

Those yields look too low for what’s coming at the bond market: The next wave of Inflation and a Fed that's comfortable with 3%+ core PCE inflation.

It’s ugly, but slightly less ugly.

10-Year Treasury yield bounced to 4.35% on Friday, after dipping earlier in the week. 30-year Treasury near 5%. Entire Yield Curve above EFFR.

Whiff of turmoil in the bond market as inflation fears moved to the front and center.

Bond market frets about inflation, leveraged Treasury bets unwind, housing market frets about spring selling season.

But debt doesn’t exist in a vacuum: The Debt-to-GDP and Deficit-to-GDP ratios provide (ugly) context.

US Government sold $651 billion of Treasury securities this week into these rising yields.

The bond market flipped from haven trade to inflation trade.

It undid more than the entire haven trade that had started on Thursday and blew through the hot PPI inflation on Friday.

The ugly debt monster grew faster than current-dollar GDP.

Markets not surprised. 10-year Treasury yield rises modestly.

Sold $54B of 10-Year Treasury notes at 4.18% to replace $25B of maturing 1.73% 10-year notes, pushing up amount outstanding by $29B.