Home sales are near 4.2 million, with lock-in preventing about 870,000 sales in 2026 and only about 5.8% decaying annually.

With inventory at multiyear highs, NAR prices are up 0.9% year over year versus 3.6% wage growth, easing affordability pressure.

Inventory is up from record lows, but new listings remain below normal, keeping 2026 growth rates below last year’s peak.

March existing home sales fell 3.6% to 3.98 million, the slowest March since 2009, as inventory climbed 3.0% to 1.36 million.

2026 demand data is positive, but Iran-driven energy costs, 15% tariffs, and Fed hawks could push mortgage rates above 6.25%.

30-year mortgage rates hovered near 6.15% as employer payrolls fell by 92,000 in February and markets expected no Fed rate cut next week.