When sentiment breaks: What consumer confidence is telling us about recession risk and fiscal reality

Since 1946, economists and others who find themselves alone on Friday nights have studied the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers for indications of consumer attitudes toward the U.S. economy. At its core, the survey measures current conditions and future expectations — but with a focus on the psychology of the consumer. And it's a remarkably accurate predictor of recession.

We may finally be near the bottom of the mortgage market cycle

I started in mortgages in 2007 for a brokerage office in Salem, Oregon. Within my first year and a half, I was one of the top-producing loan officers in the office. At the same time, the world around me was coming apart. I didn’t realize at the time that the industry I had just joined was starting to exhale.
The mid-2000s boom was over, companies were shrinking, and loan officers who had spent…

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