On June 14, the United States and Iran announced a deal to end the war that began in late February. A signing ceremony is set for Friday. The terms, as Washington describes them, include an immediate ceasefire on all fronts including Lebanon, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting of the US naval blockade, an Iranian pledge never to pursue nuclear weapons, some form of financial…
In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer says the US and Iran’s memorandum of understanding to end the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz marks progress, but warns it falls far short of resolving the broader conflict.
Ian explains that while markets are responding positively, key details of the agreement remain unclear, with Washington and Tehran offering competing accounts of…
The United States and Iran said Sunday that they had reached an interim agreement that could end the months-long war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Officials are expected to sign the deal in Switzerland on Friday, following the G7 summit in France. If signed, it would mark the biggest diplomatic breakthrough since the war began. Keep in mind, the…
Donald Trump’s war in Iran has been an unmitigated disaster. The conflict has killed thousands, disrupted the lives of millions more, imposed enormous (and rising) economic costs, and yielded no discernible strategic gains. It is, not surprisingly, deeply unpopular in the United States, in the Middle East, and around the world – by far Trump’s biggest foreign policy mistake of either…
In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer says the Iran war has left the global economy paying a steep price while delivering few of the outcomes the Trump administration promised. But it may have one unintended consequence: accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels.
Ian argues that the focus has shifted away from Iran’s nuclear program and toward restoring normal traffic…
You already know that the war in Iran has stoked inflation, but it’s not just for oil, gas, and fertilizer. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has caused prices to “balloon” for another commodity that’s essential for everything from advanced medical equipment and automobiles, to drones, laptops, and even AI. In this video, GZERO’s Alex Kliment puts his pulmonary capacity on the line to…
In his latest “ask ian,” Ian Bremmer says momentum is building toward a possible deal with Iran, driven by sustained negotiations and shifting US positions.“There’s still ongoing negotiations at a high level,” Ian notes, adding that Washington and Tehran are maintaining “a significant amount of ongoing touch points.”
He points to a key shift in President Trump’s stance on Iran’s…
****Protests and unrest have gripped the Bolivian capital of La Paz for the past two weeks, culminating in clashes between demonstrators and police on Monday. What began with the national labor union demanding a 20% wage increase quickly grew as other unions joined in, citing rising fuel costs and unsafe working conditions. Many of these groups are…
In his latest “ask ian," Ian Bremmer examines US–Iran tensions, as President Trump signals possible military strikes but repeatedly pulls back amid regional pressure and limited strategic options.
Ian notes that Trump has issued several ultimatums on Iran while backing down "every time because his military options are not great.” The result, he argues, is a cycle of pressure…
The Iran war has had a ripple effect on the global economy and international relations way beyond the Middle East. Kori Schake of the American Enterprise Institute joinsIan Bremmer to discuss how the conflict is redrawing power for the US, Russia, China, and America's allies.
Trump declared Operation Epic Fury over, but the consequences of the Iran war are still very much…
Operation Epic Fury may be over, but the Iran war is far from resolved. On this week's episode, American Enterprise Institute Kori Schake joins Ian Bremmer to discuss the conflict's global ripple effects.
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to commercial shipping, the US finds itself in what Schake calls a Mexican standoff, unable to force Iran's hand without dramatic…
The Iran war may have entered a ceasefire phase, but the crisis is far from over.
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, global energy markets are under mounting pressure, and President Trump appears to be backing away from some of his original demands on Tehran. Ian Bremmer argues that Iran increasingly believes it has more leverage than the United States, and that perception…
Both the United States and Iran accused the other of violating the truce on Thursday. The US said it thwarted attacks on three Navy ships in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran accused the US of firing on an oil tanker attempting to pass a US blockade. But US President Donald Trump dismissed the exchanges as a “trifle,” and Iran’s foreign minister…
As missiles and drones flew over the Gulf region, global shipping companies faced a new reality: the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for more than a quarter of the world’s oil and countless consumer goods, was suddenly at risk.
In this Global Stage interview, GZERO's Tony Maciulis speaks with Gulftainer Group CEO Farid Belbouab about how the UAE rapidly transformed its eastern coast…
The United States has paused its 72-hour old mission to “guide” ships through the Strait of Hormuz, as Tehran reviews a US-proposal under which Iran would accept some limits on uranium enrichment, the US would lift sanctions, and both sides would agree to reopen the waterway. US President Donald Trump has warned that…
In this "ask ian," Ian Bremmer breaks down the rapidly unraveling situation following the US announcement of “Project Freedom ” and why tensions with Iran are escalating again.
Ian explains that Iran’s swift retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz , including targeting ships and launching drones and missiles at the UAE , wasn’t just about disruption. It was a…
In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer unpacks a rapidly shifting US strategy toward Iran as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt global shipping and raise the risk of further escalation.
Ian highlights growing confusion over Washington’s approach, noting that what was first presented as a “humanitarian mission” under ‘Project Freedom’ quickly shifted away from direct naval…
Fifty thousand demonstrators gathered in Tokyo on Sunday, the country’s Constitution Memorial Day, to protest Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's call for “advanced discussions” on revising Japan’s pacifist constitution. Since 1947, Article 9 has prohibited Japan from maintaining land, sea, or air forces and from waging war. It was reinterpreted…
Starting today, China is scrapping tariffs on imports from 53 African nations. Yet Beijing’s zero-tariff policy is unlikely to narrow the continent’s growing trade deficit with China any time soon. Africa’s exports to China are primarily raw materials and critical minerals such as copper and cobalt, which are essential to making…
US President Donald Trump reportedly told his aides to prepare for a longer blockade of Iranian-linked ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, in the hopes that the Islamic Republic kowtows to his demand to dismantle its nuclear program. He appears to prefer this option to restarting a bombing campaign or exiting the…
While traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a standstill amid a double blockade by both the US and Iran, a ship owned by sanctioned Russian billionaire Alexei Mordashov managed to make it through. It’s not clear whether Iran granted the yacht permission to travel between Dubai, in the UAE, and the Omani capital Muscat. Nonetheless, its ability to transit the Strait highlights…
In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer warns the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is deepening into a prolonged global crisis, with rising economic and geopolitical costs and little sign of progress in US-Iran negotiations.
Ian says that while “the Iranians are willing to talk,” they are now pushing a “skinny deal” focused on reopening the strait in exchange for economic relief,…
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The US Navy isn’t just intercepting Iranian-linked ships outside the Strait of Hormuz. In recent days, it redirected a trio of ships that were passing in Asian waters, per Reuters. One of the ships was reportedly carrying 2 million barrels of Iranian oil, and had been scheduled to discharge the crude in India. The US’s aim is to further strangle…
President Donald Trump announced on social media on Tuesday that he was extending the ceasefire with Iran until their leaders “can come up with a unified proposal.” He did not provide a deadline, though, and it remains unclear how and when this impasse over ending the war will end. The US leader added that the US blockade of the Strait of…
Two months into the Iran war, the shooting has stopped … for now.
In Quick Take, Ian Bremmer explains that the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran is holding, with both sides avoiding direct confrontation while continuing to apply pressure in other ways. The US blockade remains in place, and Iran is still disrupting key shipping routes, underscoring just how tenuous the…
The US Navy this weekend seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship seeking to break Washington’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran vowed to retaliate, and sent mixed signals on whether it would join further talks with the US in Pakistan this week. Hormuz traffic is now, once again, at a halt. The waterway whiplash is…
The 10-day ceasefire negotiated between Israel and Lebanon took effect last night – one that the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah acknowledged but hasn’t said whether they’d abide by – has added some momentum to the US-Iran ceasefire talks. US President Donald Trump said Thursday that the war “should be ending pretty soon.” He added that Tehran…
In Iran, a shooting war has given way to a fragile ceasefire and a high-stakes standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, with the global economy hanging in the balance.
Iran now holds effective control over a critical oil chokepoint, says Eurasia Group energy analyst Gregory Brew , while the US enforces its own blockade to try to squeeze Iran. The result: dueling blockades, rising prices, and a…
One day after US President Donald Trump announced that he had started a blockade of ships coming in and out of Iranian ports via the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran is already testing those US commitments. A sanctioned tanker called Elpis that took on cargo in an Iranian port has reportedly crossed the Strait of Hormuz. It’s not the only one: three more ships…