I’ve said it before: since Donald Trump took office for the second time a year and a half ago, the United States has been the largest single driver of global political risk. Not Moscow, not Tehran, not Beijing – Washington. When the leader of the most powerful country in the world – the one that built and upheld the global order for eighty years – decides the rules should no longer apply to…
Over the past month, Albania has seen its largest street demonstrations since the fall of communism nearly four decades ago. The protests in the small Balkan country were touched off by the start of construction on a seaside luxury resort linked to US President Donald Trump ’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. The project would despoil a…
In his latest “ask ian,” Ian Bremmer says the US and China should use their growing engagement to address two major global challenges where cooperation could have an outsized impact: the war in Ukraine and the risks posed by artificial intelligence.
On the Russia-Ukraine war, Ian says the US and China are uniquely positioned to pressure Vladimir Putin toward a ceasefire, with the…
Americans, it appears, are in a foul mood.
In a recent Gallup poll, 76% of US respondents said they were dissatisfied with “the way things are going in the United States at this time.” An NBC news poll released on June 14 found that just 38% said they believe the nation’s best years lie ahead, and 64% in a June 15 Reuters/Ipsos poll said American democracy was in danger of failing.
In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer calls the United States under President Trump the dominant driver of global political risk, but argues that the world is increasingly pushing back.
He says that a more unilateral and transactional US foreign policy, combined with efforts to reduce institutional checks, has driven outsized global uncertainty over the past year and a…
On July 4, the United States will celebrate its 250th birthday. Over the past two and a half centuries, American society has changed profoundly, from an agrarian republic of 13 colonies to the urban, diverse, and economic superpower it is today. To mark the quarter-millennium, we decided to look back on how the country has demographically evolved since its last major milestone, the…
As the war in Ukraine drags through its fifth year, Russia’s fortunes are beginning to sour. In recent months, the Ukrainian military has made its most significant gains since the summer of 2023. Kyiv’s weapons meanwhile are expanding their range, striking energy facilities deep into the heart of Russia while also pummeling the oil infrastructure in Moscow with strikes that subjected…
The death toll from the Venezuelan earthquakes continues to rise, nearing 600 by Friday morning. The US believes that figure could rise to a staggering 10,000 once all the dead are located under the rubble. The human and economic toll are immense. But as is often the case with natural disasters of this scale, there will be a political…
With everything going on in the Middle East, Ukraine, the United States, and elsewhere, you could be forgiven for not thinking much about North Korea lately. But while we’ve all been looking away, the “hermit kingdom” and its Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un are emerging from the G-Zero world in their strongest geostrategic position in decades.
North Korea’s economy grew 3.7% in 2024…
After less than two years in office, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced on Monday morning that he would resign as Labour Party leader. “I have spoken to His Majesty the King this morning to inform him of my decision,” said a tearful Starmer outside Downing Street, who will exit office by September. The center-left leader’s position…
The interim agreement to end the war, signed by both sides on Wednesday, appears to tilt toward Iran: it lifts the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, grants sanction waivers for Iranian oil products – meaning Tehran no longer has to sell oil at a discount – and gives the Islamic Republic access to frozen funds, worth some $24 billion. While…
The festival of football is finally here: the 2026 World Cup kicks off today, with the United States, Mexico, and Canada hosting the largest tournament in the competition’s history.
The buildup has been far from smooth, though. Ticket prices are eye-watering, raising concerns about empty seats at the stadiums. There are also fears that the heat will harm the players and that the tournament's…
The US-Canada relationship has long been one of the closest partnerships in the world. The two countries share the world’s longest undefended border, exchange nearly $1 trillion in goods and services annually, and work closely together on defense and security.
But as business and political leaders gather for the US-Canada Summit, co-hosted by GZERO’s parent company Eurasia Group and Royal…
It’s a fascinating moment for world politics and global markets. Geopolitically, the world is in turmoil, primarily because the United States, still the superpower, has become a fundamentally unreliable actor. President Donald Trump is actively pulling apart the international order that Washington built and led over the past 80 years. Yet, financial markets are riding high – in the US, East…
Just two days after NASA unveiled plans for a permanent base near the Moon’s south pole, Blue Origin – one of the private companies hired to be part of the project – suffered a spectacular setback. On May 28, the Jeff Bezos -owned company’s test rocket exploded in Florida, badly damaging its launchpad, which could take years to repair. No one was injured, but the failure brought the…
The United States and Iran seem to be moving closer to a deal to end the war, recent skirmishing and mixed signals notwithstanding.
If concluded – still a big if – this agreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the US blockade, unfreeze Iran’s frozen assets (via Qatar), and extend the ceasefire – while kicking nuclear negotiations down the road. There’d be no dismantling of Tehran’s…
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche(whom President Donald Trump hired) will appoint a five-person panel to administer the money to people who claim that they suffered “lawfare” at the hands of the government. The fund could be used to write checks to those who attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, or other allies of Trump, who himself has claimed he was the target of “lawfare” during…
The two gunmen, who took their own lives after the shooting, killed three men outside the Islamic Center of San Diego. Law enforcement was already on the hunt for one of the suspects: his mother had called the police earlier in the day saying he had stolen her guns and car. Soon after, police received a call about an active shooter – and authorities say it was the same teenager, alongside an…
In his latest “ask ian," Ian Bremmer examines US–Iran tensions, as President Trump signals possible military strikes but repeatedly pulls back amid regional pressure and limited strategic options.
Ian notes that Trump has issued several ultimatums on Iran while backing down "every time because his military options are not great.” The result, he argues, is a cycle of pressure…
The number increased by one on Saturday after Sen. Bill Cassidy lost his reelection primary in Louisiana to Rep. Julia Letlow. The previous four had retired, albeit under pressure from Trump. Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska are now the only two GOP senators left who voted to impeach Trump. Just two of the 10 House Republicans who voted that way remain…
*****When US PresidentDonald Trump* and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet in Beijing on Thursday, Taiwan will be top of Xi’s mind.
But it’s not an invasion that he seeks, according to Ian Bremmer , at least not yet.
What Xi wants, Ian explained in a recent episode of “ask ian,” is “for the Americans to change the status quo.” In other words, the Chinese leader will ask Trump…
After the Labour Party’s disastrous performance in the local elections last Thursday, one that was fully expected, Prime Minister Keir Starmer is clinging onto his position by a thread. In a bid to shore up support, the PM delivered a “relaunch speech” in London on Monday morning, acknowledging voters’ desire for quicker change while reiterating…
The US military is reportedly increasing surveillance missions over Cuba, mostly around the country’s two biggest cities, Havana and Santiago de Cuba. Flights of this ilk were previously rare in this area. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is reportedly growing impatient that the Cuban regime hasn’t fallen, despite a de facto US oil blockade on the island – his team says the regime…
While the world has its eyes on the Strait of Hormuz, China’s gaze is fixed farther east: Taiwan. For decades, Beijing’s “One China” policy has asserted that there is only one sovereign Chinese state and that Taiwan is a breakaway province that must return to mainland control – peacefully if possible, but by force if necessary. Now, are the stars aligning for Beijing to advance that goal?
As…
The Russian-backed Malian army is starting to regain ground following coordinated attacks by terrorist insurgents and Tuareg secessionists over the weekend. On Wednesday, they wrestled back control of a town along the Niger border from Islamic State-linked insurgents. Calm has also returned to the West African state’s central region, as…
Since returning to the White House last January, Donald Trump has antagonized most of the world’s major governments in one form or another. In particular, he has targeted Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, most of Europe, Canada, and even Greenland for various forms of coercion, and his tariffs have set teeth on edge pretty much the world over. More importantly, the president has redefined what the…
US President Donald Trump reportedly told his aides to prepare for a longer blockade of Iranian-linked ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, in the hopes that the Islamic Republic kowtows to his demand to dismantle its nuclear program. He appears to prefer this option to restarting a bombing campaign or exiting the…
“Time and again, our two countries have always found ways to come together,” King Charles III is expected to tell the US Congress later today, in what will be the first address to Congress by a British monarch since 1991.
The King’s words are a tacit acknowledgment that his trip to the US, the first British state visit since 2007, comes at a precarious moment for the “special…
On Saturday, an armed man sprinted through a security checkpoint at the annual White House Correspondents’ Dinner in Washington, D.C., where US President Donald Trump and other administration officials had gathered with all of the country’s top political journalists. The gunman shot a Secret Service agent before law enforcement apprehended him – the agent was saved by a bulletproof…
Colombian President Gustavo Petro meets in Caracas today with Venezuela’s acting President Delcy Rodríguez , their first encounter since the US deposed Rodríguez’s former boss, Nicolás Maduro , and effectively installed Rodríguez as a viceroy. Petro, a left-winger who has clashed repeatedly with US President **Donald…