_Benchmarking the Honesty of Fine-Mapping Credible Sets_
Fine-mapping has a promise built into its output, and almost nobody checks whether the promise is kept.
When you run SuSiE on a GWAS locus, it hands you a _credible set_ : a small group of variants that, at a stated confidence level like 95%, should contain the true causal variant. That 95% is a claim about reality. Among all the loci…